Monday, March 24, 2008

El "salvataje bancario" genera peligro de inflación y podría tumbar al dólar




IAR Noticias/ Según Reuters, cada vez hay más pedidos para que el Gobierno, ya sea directamente o a través de la Reserva Federal estadounidense, ataque a la raíz del problema de la crisis financiera, a través de compras de hipotecas cuyo financiamiento resulta cada vez más difícil para los bancos.

Si los Estados Unidos comprara deuda hipotecaria a su valor nominal, o muy cerca de ese nivel, a pesar del hecho de que gran parte de ella se negocia bastante debajo de eso en el mercado, permitiría que los bancos devuelvan los préstamos usados para financiar esas inversiones, señala Reuters.

Si el tamaño de la operación fuera suficiente, por u$s800.000 millones o 1 billón de dólares, aliviaría una terrible presión sobre las hojas de balance de los bancos y permitiría que otros mercados de crédito, como aquellos para los préstamos corporativos, regresen a algún equilibrio.
Eso a su vez haría más efectiva la política monetaria de la FED, en el sentido de que los bancos serían capaces de incrementar el crédito y trasladar las reducciones de tasas de interés.

Por supuesto -señala Reuters- todo esto implicaría tomar medidas radicales, que excederían por lejos la política ya extraordinaria de la Fed de canjear hipotecas en poder de los bancos y de algunos bancos de inversión, a cambio de bonos del Tesoro, más fáciles de financiar.

También es un enorme riesgo -señala laagencia de noticias- en términos de la obligación que tiene la Reserva Federal , de mantener la estabilidad de precios.

Dejando de lado el tema del "riesgo moral", y dependiendo también de cómo se haga tal rescate, podría llevar la inflación a niveles intolerables para los acreedores extranjeros.

Esto podría provocar una caída aún mayor del dólar, mientras los acreedores internacionales busquen seguridad en otros activos, puntualiza Reuters.

Semejante rescate tendría que ser pagado con los impuestos, lo que parece improbable, o involucraría emitir más deuda del Gobierno o expandir efectivamente la oferta monetaria.

"Habría un impacto inflacionario debido a la enorme introducción de crédito", dijo a Reuters Philip Gisdakis, estratega financiero de Unicredit en Munich.

"No son u$s50.000 millones, estamos hablando de algo como 1 billón de dólares. Esa inyección de capital que se necesita tendrá consecuencias para la economía de los Estados Unidos", agregó.

Un rescate de ese tamaño muy probablemente alimente la inflación, que ya está incómodamente alta, creando más dólares y poniéndolos en circulación. "Si es demasiado grande, tendrá que haber un elemento de monetización, con financiamiento de la Fed", dijo Tim Drayson, economista de ABN AMRO en Londres.

Además -señala Reuters- habría serias dificultades para alcanzar un acuerdo en un año electoral. El Tesoro estadounidense dijo el último miércoles que las propuestas que había visto causarían más perjuicios que ventajas.

En parte, es por eso que el permiso que obtuvieron Fannie Mae y Freddie Mac para asumir más riesgos y comprar más hipotecas representó un cambio tan asombroso.

Pero si bien la deuda de estas firmas tiene una garantía implícita del Gobierno, son sociedades participadas por accionistas. Sin embargo, los nuevos préstamos por u$s200.000 millones permitidos para Fannie y Freddie por su regulador podrían no ser suficientes.

Si eventualmente, la inflación y la caída del dólar se aceleran el uno al otro de una manera viciosa, el respaldo externo podría reducirse fuertemente. "Si (los acreedores externos) deciden que no van a aceptar las políticas inflacionarias de la Fed, se podría ver un colapso bastante desordenado", dijo el experto Drayson citado por Reuters.

"Si estamos hablando de (un rescate de) un billón de dólares o más, será bastante difícil evitar la inflación como consecuencia de eso", agregó.

Por supuesto, también podría haber consecuencias derivadas del camino alternativo, que podría conducir a una serie de quiebras entre las instituciones financieras. En ambos casos, las apuestas son elevadas, concluye Reuters.

Publicado en
http://www.iarnoticias.com/2008/secciones/norteamerica/0083_salvataje_inflacion_23mar08.html
Accedo vía
http://senalesdelostiempos.blogspot.com/2008/03/el-salvataje-bancario-genera-peligro-de.html

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